South Africa has firmly positioned itself as a leading contender for the 2023-25 World Test Championship final following a convincing 2-0 series victory in Bangladesh. Their recent performances, including a seven-wicket win in Mirpur and a staggering innings and 273-run triumph in Chattogram, mark their first series win in Bangladesh since the 2007-08 season. This achievement also makes South Africa the first team from the “SENA” nations to secure a series victory in Bangladesh since England did so in the 2009-10 season.
With a percentage of points (PCT) sitting at 54.17, South Africa currently occupies the fourth spot on the league table, trailing only India (62.82), Australia (62.50), and Sri Lanka (55.56). Given that South Africa has played fewer Tests—only eight compared to India’s 13 and Australia’s 12—their PCT is more sensitive, meaning each victory has a greater impact on their standing.
Remaining Test Matches for South Africa
Against Sri Lanka: 2 matches at home (November 27-December 1 and December 5-9, 2024)
Against Pakistan: 2 matches at home (December 26-30, 2024, and January 3-7, 2025)
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Path to the Final
To secure a place in the World Test Championship final, South Africa needs to perform well in their remaining four Tests. Winning all four would elevate their PCT to 69.44, virtually ensuring their spot in the final. However, if they only manage to win three out of four, their PCT would drop to 61.11, still a strong position but not as foolproof.
If we assume that India wins their Test match against New Zealand in Mumbai and Australia secures a 2-0 series win in Sri Lanka, India’s PCT would rise to 65.48 while Australia would climb to 67.86. The upcoming five-match Border-Gavaskar Trophy series would also be a crucial factor.
If India were to take the series 3-2, they would move to 64.04, while Australia would fall to 60.53. Conversely, if Australia wins 3-2, they’d end up at 65.79, with India at 58.77. A drawn series (2-2) would keep Australia at 62.28 and India at 60.53. Should either side win by a larger margin, the team that finishes lower would fall further behind South Africa.
Thus, even if South Africa wins three of their remaining Tests, they can be assured of finishing ahead of at least one of Australia or India. However, this outcome does not guarantee them a place in the final.
Also Read: South Africa Secures Record Innings Victory Over Bangladesh in Historic Test Match
Potential Challenges for South Africa
While it’s assumed that India would win the Mumbai Test, if New Zealand were to triumph in that match and achieve a clean sweep over England at home (3-0), they would surge to a PCT of 64.29. For Australia to finish above South Africa’s PCT of 61.11, they would need only a draw (2-2) against India, or better. India could also qualify if they achieve a 3-0 win or more.
Sri Lanka remains a competitive factor as well. If they manage to win three out of their remaining four Tests—two against Australia at home, which we are assuming they win 2-0—their position will improve. The remaining two Tests against South Africa would need to end in a split (1-1) for South Africa’s calculations to hold.
This scenario would leave New Zealand at 64.29, Sri Lanka at 61.54, and South Africa at 61.11.
In summary, achieving three victories out of four home Tests would allow South Africa to stay ahead of at least one of Australia or India. However, it won’t necessarily guarantee them a final berth. Despite this, South Africa would be in a stronger position relative to both India and Australia, and not qualifying would become a mere mathematical possibility rather than a foregone conclusion.
